27 Aug Is the housing market finally about to reach rock bottom?
‘Are we there yet?’ That seems to be the million dollar question on everyone’s lips. Today we’ll take a look at whether or not the property market is finally starting to stabilise, and when we might start seeing some positive changes in the market.
Shhh. Can you hear it?
It’s the sound of optimism breathing its way through the Australian property landscape once more. It’s been a tumultuous time with speculation rife around what’s happening in the Australian property market.
Let’s run through what some of the property market’s leading experts and reports have said recently.
CoreLogic says the housing downturn is losing steam as the pace of declining values continued to reduce in May.
With Australia’s average housing affordability the best it has been since 2016, CoreLogic’s Head of Research for Australia, Cameron Kusher predicts “that price falls will settle later this year, followed by modest price growth starting from 2020”.
Since peaking in October 2017, house prices in capital cities have fallen about 10%. Forecasts had suggested they’d fall as far as 15%, but AMP Capital believes they’ll now only bottom out at 12% later this year.
“The combination of the removal of the threat to property tax concessions, earlier interest rate cuts, financial help for first home buyers and APRA relaxing its 7% interest rate test points to house prices bottoming earlier and higher than we have been expecting,” said Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Economics and Chief Economist, AMP Capital.
Consumers think now’s a pretty good time to buy a house, according to the Westpac sentiment survey’s ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index.
“Housing-related sentiment showed a clear response to the lowering in interest rates, although again some of the gains were more muted than seen in past rate cuts,” Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan said.
ANZ’s Home Owners Lead, Kate Gibson, says they’re seeing suburbs and towns in every state where it is more affordable to buy than rent. Perhaps for some savvy borrowers the difference between renting and owning might also equal a tree-change. Here’s the list if you’re interested.
“This shift, combined with record low interest rates, is driving more first home buyers to look at entering the market,” Ms Gibson said.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)
According to the latest ABS data, the value of lending commitments to households rose 0.6% in April 2019.
“The steep decline in owner-occupier lending commitments seen since late 2017 appears to be slowing,” said ABS Chief Economist, Bruce Hockman.
Smart Company reports that the stats show we are at or nearing the bottom of this property cycle. Five of the eight capital cities have recorded a slight and subtle rise in value over the previous month.
Smart Company also reports there has been a notable change in buyer sentiment, with buyers back out attending open homes, applying for loans and making offers on their hopeful new property.
Want to know more?
Sure, the nationwide property market might still be trending down. But optimism and buyer sentiment seems to be on the way up.
If you’d like to know how this shifting landscape might affect your lending situation, please get in touch – we’d be delighted to run through your options with you.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.